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Some thoughts

We will talk exclusively of base Catan with 4 players. I’ll sometimes use “2 resources” or “2 income” to refer to a 2 resources income every 4 turns (by the time it’s your turn again).

Discard probabilities are generally quite high. There’s a ≈50% chance you will discard if you hold 8 or more resources at turn end. You should definetely trade in any way possible.

With a base 2 income setup, the discard probability is ≈25% with 7 cards in hand and ≈10% with 6 cards in hand–You’re roughly expected to 2 cards and 1 card respectively. Seems worthwhile to trade 4:1 for a resource you can’t generate naturally.

With a 4 income setup, the discard probability is ≈30% with 7 cards in hand, ≈20% with 6 cards in hand and ≈10% with 5 cards in hand. Prematurely trading seems very worthwhile if you have ≥6 cards in hand.

It’s good to know that a 6 or 8 adjacency roughly implies a 1/2 income, and that 9 dots implies 1 income.

This follows up to the fact that robbing is extremely valuable! It takes away 1 resource upfront in addition to blocking ≈1/2 income! That could be 30-70% of someone’s income!