Catan Probability & Orbit Calculator

Exact dynamic programming state engine for production, port trades, and multi-7 robber risk

1. Active Hexes (Settlements & Cities) 0 pips

Add hexes visually or edit the shorthand below. Click 1x / 2x on a tile to toggle between Settlement and City.

Raw Shorthand Input (synced)

Format: number,resource (use *2 or repeat entry for cities). Separate with ;, ., or newline.

2. Rolls, Starting Hand & Maritime Trade

Set your current cards in hand and the best trade ratio available for each resource:

3. Target Recipes / Conditions

Click a preset to append or enter one resource string per line (e.g., lwgb for a Settlement).

Expected Production After 4 rolls

0.00
Expected Cards Gained
0%
At Least 1 Card Produced
0%
At Least One 7 Rolled

Condition Fulfillment Probabilities

Raw Prod ignores trading and 7s. With Trades allows converting surplus resources via your selected bank/port ratios. Safe (No Discard) requires meeting the goal without ever holding ≥8 cards when a 7 is rolled.

Exact 7-Roll & Discard Risk (>7 Cards)

Exact probability that at least one 7 is rolled while your total hand (Starting Hand + production up to that roll) is 8 or more cards. Accounts for multiple 7s across the sequence.

View Production Distribution Before First 7 vs. Full Orbit