Catan Probability Calculator (4p)

Enter resources adjacent to settlements and cities. Enter twice for cities. Resources use the letters b for brick, l for lumber, o for ore, g for grain, w for wool. Each resource entry is the dice number followed by a comma and the resource code. Separate entries with a period, a semicolon, or a newline.


Figure out the probability of resource conditions being met after 4 turns. Conditions are entered one per line as a contiguous string of resource codes.


Expected Resources (after 4 turns):


Conditions Fulfilment and Discard Probabilities (after 4 turns):


FYI:

Conditions Fulfilment: We assume you start with no existing resources. No robbing and discards accounted for. No trading accounted for.

Discard probabilities: We only consider the first instance when 7 is rolled. We do not properly count the possibility that more than two 7s are rolled and the player does not discard on the first roll (and later potentially discards on later 7 rolls)-these possibilities are counted as "not discarding". No trading accounted for.